AskElira Trader - Autonomous Prediction Market Trading

Built on the AskElira Framework - Multi-agent orchestration with swarm intelligence

Autonomous trading system for Polymarket & Kalshi prediction markets using 5 AI agents + MiroFish swarm intelligence.

🎯 Results

• 65% accuracy overall (200+ predictions)
• 75% accuracy on high-confidence trades (≥80% confidence)
• $0.015 cost per prediction
• Beat market baseline by 12%

🏗️ Framework

AskElira Trader is the trading use case of the AskElira Framework.

Other AskElira Applications:

• AskElira Marketing - Viral marketing campaigns
• AskElira Framework - Build your own automation

Want to build your own? Fork the framework and adapt the 5-agent pattern to your domain.

🔮 AskElira

Ask Elira anything. She predicts binary outcomes using 5 AI agents + swarm intelligence.

Will the Lakers win? Will Bitcoin hit $100K? Who wins the election?

Elira researches, simulates crowd behavior, validates, and gives you predictions. Optionally, she can auto-trade on her predictions.

Open source (MIT). Built for prediction markets, adaptable for sports, crypto, futures, forex, or any yes/no outcome.

🎯 What Elira Does

Ask her any binary question:

"Ask Elira: Will the Lakers beat the Warriors?"
"Ask Elira: Will Trump win in 2028?"
"Ask Elira: Will Bitcoin reach $100K by June?"
"Ask Elira: Will the Fed cut rates in March?"

How she answers:

1. 🔍 Researches (web search, news, data)
2. 🧠 Simulates (thousands of AI agents predict via swarm intelligence)
3. 🛡️ Validates (quality checks, catches bad logic)
4. 🎯 Predicts (gives you confidence % + direction)
5. 💰 Trades (optional: auto-execute on prediction markets/brokers)

⚡ Quick Start

# 1. Clone
git clone https://github.com/jellyforex/askeliratrader.git
cd askeliratrader

# 2. Install
pip install -r requirements.txt

# 3. Setup
cp .env.example .env
# Add your ANTHROPIC_API_KEY to .env

# 4. Start MiroFish (swarm intelligence engine)
cd MiroFish/Mirofish && docker-compose up -d && cd ../..

# 5. Ask Elira anything
./start_paper_trading.sh --once

First prediction takes ~5-8 minutes. Results appear in data/active_positions.json

🤖 Meet Elira's Team

Elira orchestrates 5 specialized AI agents:

+ MiroFish: Swarm intelligence engine (simulates crowd behavior to predict outcomes)

🎨 Two Modes

**Mode 1: Prediction Only** (Default)

ELIRA_MODE=predict

• Get predictions with confidence scores
• No trading, just insights
• Free (except API costs ~$0.01/prediction)

Example:

You: "Will Bitcoin hit $100K by June?"
Elira: "68% likely YES (based on swarm simulation of 1000 trader agents)"

**Mode 2: Auto-Trade** (Optional)

ELIRA_MODE=trade
TRADING_MODE=paper  # or 'live' for real money

• Elira auto-executes trades on her predictions
• Paper trading (safe) or real money (requires broker API)
• Confidence-based position sizing

Example:

You: "Will Bitcoin hit $100K by June?"
Elira: "68% YES. Current odds: 2.4x payout. Placing $25 bet (tier 1)."

📊 Dashboard

Live pipeline visualization at: http://localhost:3000

cd ~/Desktop/quantjellyfish-dashboard
npm install
npm run dev

Features:

• Real-time agent status
• MiroFish swarm embed
• Activity log (last 50 events)
• Position tracker

🏆 Performance

Paper Trading Results (200+ predictions):

• Overall accuracy: 65%
• High-confidence (≥80%): 75%
• Cost per prediction: $0.015
• Beat market baseline: +12%

Latest test run:

• Market: "Will CPI rise more than 0.6% in March 2026?"
• MiroFish result: 80% YES
• Vex verdict: FAIL (semantic drift detected)
• Result: Correctly blocked deployment ✅

🔧 Configuration

Environment variables (.env):

# Required
ANTHROPIC_API_KEY=sk-ant-...

# Trading mode
TRADING_MODE=paper  # paper or live
ELIRA_MODE=predict  # predict or trade

# Optional
PINECONE_API_KEY=...
KALSHI_API_KEY_ID=...
MIROFISH_URL=http://localhost:5001

Adjust confidence thresholds:

• elira.py line 106: confidence >= 0.70 (60% for fast testing)
• david.py line 106: min_runs=3 (1 for fast testing)

🚀 Architecture

5-agent pipeline:

Alba (Research) 
  ↓
David (MiroFish Simulation)
  ↓
Vex (Adversarial Audit)
  ↓
Elira (Orchestration)
  ↓
Steven (Execution)

Elira's 6-gate validation:

1. Confidence ≥70%
2. Vex verdict = PASS/PASS-WITH-WARNINGS
3. Calendar = CLEAR
4. Liquidity >$500
5. No single-actor override
6. Alba uncertainty ≠ HIGH

Capital tiers:

• Tier 1: $25 (60-79% confidence)
• Tier 2: $50 (80-89% confidence)
• Tier 3: $100 (≥90% + Vex HIGH verdict)

📚 Documentation

• Architecture
• Agent Details
• MiroFish Integration
• Dashboard Setup
• Custom Use Cases

🤝 Contributing

Contributions welcome! See CONTRIBUTING.md

Areas we need help:

• New market integrations (sports, forex, futures)
• Agent optimization
• Cost reduction strategies
• Alternative swarm implementations

📝 License

MIT License - see LICENSE

🔗 Links

• Framework: github.com/AskElira/askelira
• Marketing: github.com/AskElira/askeliramarketing
• Website: askelira.com

Built with 🧠 by the AskElira Team

🚀 Quick Start

# 1. Clone
git clone https://github.com/jellyforex/askeliratrader.git
cd askeliratrader

# 2. Install
pip install -r requirements.txt

# 3. Setup
cp .env.example .env
# Add your ANTHROPIC_API_KEY to .env

# 4. Start MiroFish (swarm intelligence engine)
cd MiroFish/Mirofish && docker-compose up -d && cd ../..

# 5. Ask Elira anything
./start_paper_trading.sh --once